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Gordon Pape Updates on Shaw Communications, Fortress Paper, Limited Brands Inc ...

Shaw surprised almost everyone by turning in much better than expected results for its fiscal 2011 third quarter (to May 31). Net income was $203 million ($0.45 per share) compared to $158 million ($0.37 per share) for the same period last year. That handily beat analysts' consensus estimates of $0.42 a share. However, profit for the first nine months of the fiscal year is still running behind 2010 at $390 million ($0.86 per share) compared to $411 million ($0.95 per share) last year. Consolidated revenue for the quarter was $1.28 billion, an improvement of 36% over 2010. Year-to-date, revenue totaled $3.56 billion which is a 28% improvement over 2010. Free cash flow for the three-month period was $242 million compared to $151 million last year. This increase was primarily due to the addition of Shaw Media and higher free cash flow from the Cable division. The one area that disappointed analysts was growth. Shaw is clearly losing momentum in all the key areas of its business. For instance, in the first nine months of fiscal 2010, the company added almost 274,000 digital customers. So far this year, additions are less than half that at about 117,000 new subscribers. It's the same pattern for Internet and digital phone sales. Basic cable subscribers actually dropped by almost 35,000 in the nine months. Meanwhile, the company appears to be sitting on its hands when it comes to launching a wireless service, making it increasingly difficult to enter a market now dominated by Telus. Looking ahead, the company said it expects its growth rate of core consolidated operating income before amortization will "decline modestly compared to last year's organic growth rate of approximately 7.5% as a result of competitive market pressures and higher programming costs". Capital investment is also expected to decline while cash taxes are estimated to increase. "Including the new Media assets (for the 10 month period during fiscal 2011) consolidated fiscal 2011 free cash flow is estimated to approximate $600 million," Shaw says. On June 14, Fortress Paper reported its first-quarter financial results. In our view, the results reflected a challenging quarter at Landqart, as raw material costs for cotton and soft demand for banknote paper had a negative impact on the company’s margins.

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